Anticipatory action triggers you can defend
An anticipatory action trigger releases funds before a flood or drought, so it must be objective, tested on past events and agreed in advance. We design and back-test the trigger, document its hit and false-alarm rates, and run the forecast that fires it in the season.
Funding for anticipatory action needs a trigger that is objective, tested on past events and agreed in advance. Designing one takes forecasting skill that most programmes do not have in-house.
Our solutionWe design and back-test flood and drought triggers on historical data, document the hit and false-alarm rates, and run the forecast that fires them in the season, so the protocol and the forecast are built by the same team.
Who it is for: Humanitarian agencies, Red Cross societies, governments, insurers
- Triggers tested on past events
- Hit and false-alarm rates documented
- Protocol and forecast from one team
- Duty forecaster in the season
How it works, step by step
Scope
Hazard, area and lead time needed.
History
Past events and forecasts assembled.
Design
Candidate triggers tested.
Agree
Thresholds signed off with partners.
Operate
Seasonal forecast and trigger monitoring.
What powers this solution
Interested in anticipatory action triggers?
Contact our team today, or start in the KAI portal.
Guides on this topic
- Anticipatory action trigger design: from a forecast to a decisionHow anticipatory action triggers turn a forecast into a decision: readiness and action thresholds, lead time, hit and false alarm rates, and protocols.
- Flood early warning system design: what a district or utility actually needsFlood early warning system design: forecast points, Watch and Warning levels agreed with users, lead time and skill checks, with WMO and GloFAS guidance.